Whites Under Age 35 in North America

Under age 35 North America was only 48% White 5 years ago

Introduction

Canada and America together were 48.3% White under age 35 in 2020-2021. The data for this article comes from the 2020 US Census and the 2021 Canadian Census (see sources below) so it is already 4-5 years out of date. This article will cover the methodology used to calculate the figures shown in the below image.

The USA has not always been 48% White under age 35. And Canada has not always been 60% White under age 35. Even 20 years prior, the USA was 67% White under age 35 and Canada was 78%. And if you look at ages 65+ in the 2000-2001 census’ the USA was 84% White and Canada was 92% White. But as the map shows this has changed. And it continues to change, for two reasons. Immigration that is primarily non-White, and differences in births between Whites and non-Whites.

To demonstrate how White demographic change is driven by immigration and births we can take the example of Canada between the 2016 census and 2021 census. There were 456 thousand more deaths than births for White Canadians, this was boosted by 226 thousand White immigrants, but still resulted in a decline of 230 thousand. Meanwhile there were 996 thousand more births than deaths for non-Whites in Canada plus over 1.1 million non-Whites were gained through net immigration, for a total growth of just under 2.1 million.

It is worth noting that the 12 Whitest American states are between 70% and 85% White, and they stand out in blue on the map. However, if hypothetically, you combined the populations of all 12 of those states into one big state it would be 75% White. But if you added 22% White California, with its much larger population, the hypothetical state becomes 41% White, suddenly there is no more blue on the map. It’s important to understand that states vary greatly in population, and states with a high proportion of non-Whites tend to have larger populations.

Methodology (USA)

For the USA data we get the total population for each state. Then we get the NHWA (Non-Hispanic White alone) population for each state. However, this definition of White includes most of the USA’s MENA population (Middle East and North Africa) because the US Census has never provided a MENA option for respondents when answering the question about race, and so historically most MENA respondents have selected the White option.

So we use the MENA ancestry responses in the census (I identified 26, see below) and cross reference it with NHWA for each state. Then we can subtract our per state total MENA counts from NHWA to get a new definition of White that excludes MENA. But, census ancestry data is not available by age so we will calculate it using proportions, assuming that the all-ages MENA proportion matches the age 0-34 MENA proportion. This could be an underestimate of the age 0-34 MENA population if MENA has a higher birth rate than non-MENA Whites or if immigration skews younger, but it is the best we can do without excessively manipulating the available data.

Furthermore, the US census does not collect data on Jewish ancestry, so we can’t get a proper count of MENA unless we look outside the census. Because we are trying to determine the number of “White Europeans” by removing MENA it would make sense to exclude Jews from our definition since they are a Middle Eastern people who are not Indigenous to Europe. And this is statistically important because the Jewish population is nearly triple the rest of the MENA population.

Fortunately, the AJPP (American Jewish Population Project) has what we need and it is based on Pew Research survey data. From AJPP we have the Jewish population per state, and it even lets us know that 89% of the Jewish population uses the NHWA category in the census, so to obtain the fraction of the Jewish population included in the NHW population we multiply the per-state values from the AJPP by 0.89. Since the AJPP says 41% of the Jewish population is in the 0-34 age range, we then multiply that number by 0.41.

So for each state, we have NHWA, subtract the MENA numbers from the census, and then subtract the number from AJPP. On a national level it comes out to 47.2% White. And even without adjusting the definition of who is White we still see a White minority of 49.7%.

• Total population (ages 0-34): 148,579,387

• Non-Hispanic White alone (ages 0-34): 73,866,849 (49.7%)

• Middle East and North Africa (ages 0-34): 1,004,589 (0.7%)

• Jewish (ages 0-34): 2,781,272 (1.9%)

• White excluding MENA/Jewish (ages 0-34): 70,080,988 (47.2%)

How to view ancestries within “Non-Hispanic White alone”

Go to this US census page. Use year 2020 and select the “ACS 5-Year Estimates Public Use Microdata Sample” dataset. In the variables menu search for, “Hispanic", “Race”, and “Ancestry” to add the variables titled “HISP”, “RAC2P”, and “ANC1P”. Then edit “HISP” and “RAC2P” in the cart menu with “Create Custom Group” to specify "Not Spanish/Hispanic/Latino" and "White alone". Now in the table viewer, put Non-Hispanic and White alone into the columns section and ANC1P into rows.

List of MENA Ancestries Used

• Armenian

• Iranian

• Lebanese

• Egyptian

• Turkish

• Iraqi

• Mideast

• Syrian

• Arabic

• Palestinian

• Moroccan

• Arab

• Jordanian

• Afghan

• Yemeni

• Chaldean

• Assyrian

• Saudi Arabian

• Kurdish

• Algerian

• Other Arab

• North African

• Pakistani

• Turkestani

• Libyan

• Kuwaiti

Methodology (Canada)

Calculation of the White population percentage for ages 0-34 is much simpler for Canada, because the information we need is easily available. For each province and territory we can sum 3 age groups: 0-14, 15-24, and 25-34. Now the Canadian census is different from the US census, it does collect data on the White population the best way to calculate it is by subtracting non-White groups from the total. First we get the total population, then subtract the Jewish population, the “Visible Minority” population, and the “Indigenous Identity” population. On a national level it comes out to 59.6% and looks like this:

• Total population (ages 0-34): 15,072,250

• Jewish (ages 0-34): 122,245 (0.8%)

• Visible Minority (ages 0-34): 4,952,270 (32.8%)

• Indigenous Identity (ages 0-34): 1,007,765 (6.7%)

• White (ages 0-34): 8,989,970 (59.6%)

Sources

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Government of Canada, Statistics Canada

2021 Census of Population

Table 98-10-0292-01

Table 98-10-0351-01

Table 98-10-0355-01

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United States Government, U.S. Census Bureau

2020 Decennial Census, DEC Demographic and Housing Characteristics, Table P12 and Table P12I

2020 ACS 5-Year Estimates PUMS (custom table as described above)

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Brandeis University, American Jewish Population Project

2020 US Jewish Population Estimates, Page 1, Page 7 Table 2, Page 18 Figure 17