White Canadian demographic decline

Looking at the 1971 census and 2021 census and projecting 2026

This article will cover the methodology used to calculate the figures shown in the below image.

1971 Census

First we need to access the PDF file for catalogue number 92-731. For Canada we look on the first page below the introduction, we take the total of 21,568,310 and subtract non-European groups, notice the “Other European” category.

To calculate for provinces we go to Table 5 in the report and follow the same process. However, for provinces I decided to exclude the “Other and unknown” category from the total. Otherwise, the proportion of White Canadians calculated is heavily underestimated, especially for Ontario. This is because the provincial numbers didn’t include a “Other European” category. We can tell that this approach is valid because when we add up the provincial totals and White totals and compare it to the national numbers (that did have an “Other European” category) the percentage is within a 1% difference, smaller than otherwise.

2021 Census

First we access the Statistics Canada web page here and select a geography. We then search the page for “visible minority population” and “indigenous identity” and subtract those values from the total. So for Canada that looks like 36,328,480 minus 9,639,205 and minus 1,807,250 which equals 24,882,025 White Canadians or 68%.

2026 Projection

First we get the total immigration number for 2016-2021 from here as well as the number of Whites that immigrated. For Alberta that is 193,175 and 25,145 so 13% White. Then we look at the decline in the number of Whites between 2016 and 2021 by comparing the 2016 census to the 2021 census, using the method above, we get a decline of 54,515 for Alberta. We calculate net White deaths from that by factoring in White immigration, 25,145 plus 54,515 equals 79,660. We can turn that into a daily White net deaths by dividing by 1,825 days so 44.

We then get the Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 population estimates from here. We forecast daily growth after January 1st 2024 using that rate 4,791,876 minus 4,595,851 then divided by 365 days equals 537. So we are assuming that immigration remains at the 2023 level.

Then we calculate the White Albertan population on January 1st 2024 by removing the daily net deaths from the number of White Albertans in the May 11th 2021 census. We then add White immigration between May 11, 2021 and January 1st 2024 assuming White immigration is 13% of total immigration like in 2016-2021.

2,731,825 - (44 * 965) + ((4,791,876 - 4,177,715) * 0.13) = 2,769,647

We can then calculate the total population for May 11, 2026 and the White population. For the total we do 4,791,876 plus 537 times 861 days and get 5,254,233. We then follow a similar process to before to get the May 11, 2026 White Albertan population.